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bathrobeDFS - Daily Analysis for December 27th and Review of December 26th

Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you like this information, I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium.
Yesterday In Review:
So over the last few days, I have been approached by a few people that asked me to start something called a Patreon and get onto something called Venmo in case they or anyone else wanted to “tip” me or what have you. I was hesitant to do something like that, but he told me it was akin to tipping your dealer at the casino. Ultimately, that argument won me over. So, while I can flatly say I do not expect anything, (nor am I trying to ask for anything by doing this), I have started both. If you are interested, you can check www.patreon.com/bathrobeDFS and www.venmo.com/bathrobeDFS. I hope this isn’t considered bad form, and if you don’t want me advertising this, I understand and I apologize. I hope you all don’t think anything less of me.
The other thing I did yesterday was play my lineup. Let’s take a look at it.
Lineup-
Name Price DKP Value Proj Own Real Own Diff
De’Aaron Fox 8200 43 5.2x 12.5% 12.1% 0.4%
D Rose 6800 43.25 6.4x 2.5% 9.7% 7.2%
Trevor Ariza 5400 31.75 5.9x 22.5% 12.5% 10.0%!!
Ibaka 5700 17.75 3.1x 5% 12.2% 7.2%
Cody Zeller 4400 19.5 4.4x 5% 7.2% 2.2%
Justise Winslow 5500 32.5 5.9x 7.5% 9.7% 2.2%
Luka Doncic 8300 50.25 6.1x 10% 13.8% 3.8%
Montrezl Harrell 5700 48.25 8.5x 10% 27.5% 17.5%!!
Total 50000 286.25 5.725x
Entry Fees: 48.75
Winnings: 73.80
Profit: 25.05
ROI: 51.4%
Analysis-
There were so many people at the top I wanted to fit in, I found this to be an extremely difficult slate to whittle down. Wall, Fox, Oladipo, Vuc, KAT, Kawhi, Jrue, Doncic, Drummond, Blake, Booker, Kemba.. I seriously could go on.. All of these players were in great spots, either due to game environment or injury. Picking the 2 or 3 you wanted was basically the key decision you had to make for the slate.
The first person I locked in was Fox. 239 total. SGA is not a good defender, and the Clippers are weak against PG in general. There was nothing from this side of the game that I thought was priced well enough to have a huge advantage over the others, so I locked in Fox, who i considered for legit 50 point upside with low ownership due to the hesitancy of people to pay 8200 for him (I base this on looking at the price and going "oh holy shit. 8200" and thinking everyone else will do the same)
The second person I locked in was D-Rose. I have done like, 9 of these articles so far. By far, the opinion that got me the most “shit” was that you should play D-Rose every day until he reaches 9k as long as Teague is out. Well, I am living the 6.4x life. Even in a blow out, they still gave him 38 minutes. Dude doesn’t get the respect he deserves, and I will keep using that to help me make money.
The 3rd person I locked was Cody Zeller. This one makes me really angry. Zeller had about 18 DKP going into halftime. Then they decided to play small, letting Marvin Williams get the C run for the most part, with Hernangomez still playing the backup role. If you take out the production Williams provided at the 5, “Horners Centers” put up more than 40 DKP against the Nets in 34 or so minutes. I don’t know why they went small against a team that can’t defend Centers, but it cost them the game. 18DKP going into halftime and finishing with 19.5! Are you serious! The point still stands - play Centers against Brooklyn
The 4th person I locked in was Ariza. Like i said, Washington is going to run him into the ground. Play him while he’s under 6k He might be at over 7k soon. I thought Wall would be more popular than his projection said (due to price) and I wanted to pivot onto Ariza who i thought would be less popular than the projection (and, for once, I guessed right about projected ownerships)
The 5th person I locked was Ibaka. When it came out he was going to play, without limits, in a game that Lowry was going to miss, with a Q tag displayed on DK, i wanted to get him as a pivot off of FVV, who i thought would be much more popular and facing the D of Winslow. If he hadn’t gone 2-10, maybe this would have paid off. I still don’t understand how it went so bad! Hey, they all have their bad days too!
Sixth, I locked in Montrezl. I wanted to run something back from the SAC/LAC game, he was underpriced at 5700, LouWill was back, and the projection was for only 10% ownership (man those are so bad).
This left me with 2 slots. I tried messing around with all those big guys up top. Vuc, KAT, Wall, Kawhi… but If i locked in Doncic, who was in a great spot against NO, I could also fit in Justise who the coach said would be running the point from now on until Dragic gets back. I thought this was going to be the combination that would lead to the highest combined points, so I locked it in and began holding my breath. Doncic was 1 Rebound away from a triple double!! Damn!
The Daily Slate:
A game that features basically every single team from the Xmas slate with the exception of the Kings who will be replacing the Thunder as team #10. The Bucks and the Knicks are playing again, this time in Milwaukee.
Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):
Situations to be careful of (in no particular order):
lorenzoirenicus asked me a question yesterday - do I really fade entire games due to the O/U. The way I word things (situations to avoid) and the somewhat simplified explanations I can give (i can’t write 10k words every night), I understood that could be what it looks like. However, I look at all the pricing, the matchups, the pace, the spread, and a whole other collection of other factors. Sometimes I will grab players from games with high spreads or low O/Us, but it depends on the situation. So I have decided to change the name of this section from “situations to avoid” to “situations to be careful of” because, honestly, that’s what I’m trying to predict and preach in this section - games and situations that can hamper scoring, ceiling, and your profit. For example, in the first write up, I am not saying Giannis can’t go out and put up 70 DKP. I’m saying that there may be factors at play that make this less likely. With that, let’s get into it
Situations to monitor:
Well, there we go! As I said at the top, I have a twitter and something called Venmo and a Patreon now. I don’t expect anything, but a couple people asked me about setting those up, so I wanted to make sure those folks saw. I am not trying to ask for anything, and I do apologize if you find this uncouth.
Let’s get rich together!! Barring any sort of family emergency, I will able to do a Good Chalk/Bad Chalk both tomorrow and Friday! I’ll see you guys there!
submitted by bathrobeDFS to dfsports [link] [comments]

bathrobeDFS - Daily Analysis for December 27th and Review of December 26th

Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you like this information, I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium.
Yesterday In Review:
So over the last few days, I have been approached by a few people that asked me to start something called a Patreon and get onto something called Venmo in case they or anyone else wanted to “tip” me or what have you. I was hesitant to do something like that, but he told me it was akin to tipping your dealer at the casino. Ultimately, that argument won me over. So, while I can flatly say I do not expect anything, (nor am I trying to ask for anything by doing this), I have started both. If you are interested, you can check www.patreon.com/bathrobeDFS and www.venmo.com/bathrobeDFS. I hope this isn’t considered bad form, and if you don’t want me advertising this, I understand and I apologize. I hope you all don’t think anything less of me.
The other thing I did yesterday was play my lineup. Let’s take a look at it.
Lineup-
Name Price DKP Value Proj Own Real Own Diff
De’Aaron Fox 8200 43 5.2x 12.5% 12.1% 0.4%
D Rose 6800 43.25 6.4x 2.5% 9.7% 7.2%
Trevor Ariza 5400 31.75 5.9x 22.5% 12.5% 10.0%!!
Ibaka 5700 17.75 3.1x 5% 12.2% 7.2%
Cody Zeller 4400 19.5 4.4x 5% 7.2% 2.2%
Justise Winslow 5500 32.5 5.9x 7.5% 9.7% 2.2%
Luka Doncic 8300 50.25 6.1x 10% 13.8% 3.8%
Montrezl Harrell 5700 48.25 8.5x 10% 27.5% 17.5%!!
Total 50000 286.25 5.725x
Entry Fees: 48.75
Winnings: 73.80
Profit: 25.05
ROI: 51.4%
Analysis-
There were so many people at the top I wanted to fit in, I found this to be an extremely difficult slate to whittle down. Wall, Fox, Oladipo, Vuc, KAT, Kawhi, Jrue, Doncic, Drummond, Blake, Booker, Kemba.. I seriously could go on.. All of these players were in great spots, either due to game environment or injury. Picking the 2 or 3 you wanted was basically the key decision you had to make for the slate.
The first person I locked in was Fox. 239 total. SGA is not a good defender, and the Clippers are weak against PG in general. There was nothing from this side of the game that I thought was priced well enough to have a huge advantage over the others, so I locked in Fox, who i considered for legit 50 point upside with low ownership due to the hesitancy of people to pay 8200 for him (I base this on looking at the price and going "oh holy shit. 8200" and thinking everyone else will do the same)
The second person I locked in was D-Rose. I have done like, 9 of these articles so far. By far, the opinion that got me the most “shit” was that you should play D-Rose every day until he reaches 9k as long as Teague is out. Well, I am living the 6.4x life. Even in a blow out, they still gave him 38 minutes. Dude doesn’t get the respect he deserves, and I will keep using that to help me make money.
The 3rd person I locked was Cody Zeller. This one makes me really angry. Zeller had about 18 DKP going into halftime. Then they decided to play small, letting Marvin Williams get the C run for the most part, with Hernangomez still playing the backup role. If you take out the production Williams provided at the 5, “Horners Centers” put up more than 40 DKP against the Nets in 34 or so minutes. I don’t know why they went small against a team that can’t defend Centers, but it cost them the game. 18DKP going into halftime and finishing with 19.5! Are you serious! The point still stands - play Centers against Brooklyn
The 4th person I locked in was Ariza. Like i said, Washington is going to run him into the ground. Play him while he’s under 6k He might be at over 7k soon. I thought Wall would be more popular than his projection said (due to price) and I wanted to pivot onto Ariza who i thought would be less popular than the projection (and, for once, I guessed right about projected ownerships)
The 5th person I locked was Ibaka. When it came out he was going to play, without limits, in a game that Lowry was going to miss, with a Q tag displayed on DK, i wanted to get him as a pivot off of FVV, who i thought would be much more popular and facing the D of Winslow. If he hadn’t gone 2-10, maybe this would have paid off. I still don’t understand how it went so bad! Hey, they all have their bad days too!
Sixth, I locked in Montrezl. I wanted to run something back from the SAC/LAC game, he was underpriced at 5700, LouWill was back, and the projection was for only 10% ownership (man those are so bad).
This left me with 2 slots. I tried messing around with all those big guys up top. Vuc, KAT, Wall, Kawhi… but If i locked in Doncic, who was in a great spot against NO, I could also fit in Justise who the coach said would be running the point from now on until Dragic gets back. I thought this was going to be the combination that would lead to the highest combined points, so I locked it in and began holding my breath. Doncic was 1 Rebound away from a triple double!! Damn!
The Daily Slate:
A game that features basically every single team from the Xmas slate with the exception of the Kings who will be replacing the Thunder as team #10. The Bucks and the Knicks are playing again, this time in Milwaukee.
Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):
Situations to be careful of (in no particular order):
lorenzoirenicus asked me a question yesterday - do I really fade entire games due to the O/U. The way I word things (situations to avoid) and the somewhat simplified explanations I can give (i can’t write 10k words every night), I understood that could be what it looks like. However, I look at all the pricing, the matchups, the pace, the spread, and a whole other collection of other factors. Sometimes I will grab players from games with high spreads or low O/Us, but it depends on the situation. So I have decided to change the name of this section from “situations to avoid” to “situations to be careful of” because, honestly, that’s what I’m trying to predict and preach in this section - games and situations that can hamper scoring, ceiling, and your profit. For example, in the first write up, I am not saying Giannis can’t go out and put up 70 DKP. I’m saying that there may be factors at play that make this less likely. With that, let’s get into it
Situations to monitor:
Well, there we go! As I said at the top, I have a twitter and something called Venmo and a Patreon now. I don’t expect anything, but a couple people asked me about setting those up, so I wanted to make sure those folks saw. I am not trying to ask for anything, and I do apologize if you find this uncouth.
Let’s get rich together!! Barring any sort of family emergency, I will able to do a Good Chalk/Bad Chalk both tomorrow and Friday! I’ll see you guys there!
submitted by bathrobeDFS to FantasyNBAPlays [link] [comments]

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